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000
ABNT20 KNHC 210504
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue May 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Andrea, located about 300 hundred miles southwest of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on
June 1, 2019. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather
Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Subtropical Depression Andrea (AT1/AL012019)

...ANDREA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON...
 As of 11:00 AM AST Tue May 21
 the center of Andrea was located near 30.8, -69.2
 with movement N at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Subtropical Depression Andrea Public Advisory Number 4

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 211434
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Depression Andrea Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012019
1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019

...ANDREA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 69.2W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.  Interests in
Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression
Andrea was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 69.2 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
a turn toward the northeast and east is expected tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Continued weakening is forecast, and Andrea is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low by this evening.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Subtropical Depression Andrea Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 211434
TCMAT1
 
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012019
1500 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.  INTERESTS IN
BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N  69.2W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N  69.2W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N  69.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 31.5N  67.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.7N  66.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N  69.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 

Subtropical Depression Andrea Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 211435
TCDAT1

Subtropical Depression Andrea Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012019
1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019

As expected, Andrea is likely to be a short-lived event.  The
cyclone's cloud pattern has continued to degrade, and Andrea is now
essentially devoid of deep convection.  In fact, at first glance,
the upper-level low to the southwest of the center appears to be
the most dominant feature.  Based on the lack of convection and a
buoy observation not far to the north of Andrea, the system is
being downgraded to a subtropical depression.  Since the cyclone is
expected to remain under the influence of the upper low and in and
environment of dry mid-level air for the next day or so, Andrea is
likely to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in a day or
less.

The system has moved a little more to the north than previously
estimated and the initial motion is 360/7.  Upper-level westerlies
should cause the cyclone to turn eastward in 12-24 hours until
dissipation.  The official track forecast is similar to but a
little slower than the dynamical model consensus, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 30.8N  69.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 31.5N  67.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  22/1200Z 31.7N  66.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Subtropical Depression Andrea Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019


000
FONT11 KNHC 211435
PWSAT1
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012019               
1500 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    


Subtropical Depression Andrea Graphics


Subtropical Depression Andrea 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 May 2019 14:36:29 GMT

Subtropical Depression Andrea 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 May 2019 14:36:30 GMT