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SPC MD 525

MD 0525 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TX HILL COUNTRY
        
MD 0525 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0525
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Areas affected...TX Hill Country

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 260153Z - 260300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind gusts will continue to be a
threat with this storm as it continues into the TX Hill Country.

DISCUSSION...Discrete supercell continues to maraud southwestward
into the TX Hill Country. This storm has had a history of producing
very large hail (i.e. softball size around 0020Z near Brownwood) and
strong wind gusts (i.e. measured gust of 48 kt at BWD ASOS and
estimated 65 mph in town). Large amounts of small hail have also
been reported. Despite indications previously that the storm had
become outflow dominant, recent radar signatures of the storm
suggest it has once again developed a favorable inflow/outflow
structure. Also of note, a localized area of moisture convergence
may result in additional intensification with the resulting
enhancement of vertical vorticity contributing to a brief increase
in tornado potential.

In general, the onset of nocturnal cooling should result in the
downstream airmass becoming increasingly hostile to convection.
However, given the well-developed nature of the storm and the
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates (sampled well by the MAF and
DRT 00Z soundings), the storm will likely persist for the next 2-3
hours. Large hail is currently the primary severe threat but
anticipated linear transition will result in a greater potential for
strong wind gusts.

..Mosier/Grams.. 05/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   31179981 31559928 31749880 31599819 31269794 30879801
            30349844 30209904 30289962 30639990 31179981 

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