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SPC MD 1562

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Mesoscale Discussion 1562
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Kansas...west-central/southwest

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 212030Z - 212230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered storms are expected in northeastern
Kansas to southwest Missouri. Expected multicell storm mode will be
capable of isolated large hail and strong/severe wind gusts.
Isolated tornado threat exists along near surface boundary. A WW is
possible later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered storm development is expected
along a composite cold front/outflow boundary across north-central
Kansas into southwest Missouri with some potential for further
development within a weak surface trough in the Pratt/Wichita, KS
vicinity. Current visible satellite trends indicate a deepening
cumulus field near in the Fort Scott, KS vicinity. Low 70s F
dewpoints with low 90s F temperatures has contributed to around 2000
J/kg of MLCAPE in southeastern Kansas. Weak deep-layer shear (25-30
kts) will support marginally organized storms capable of marginally
severe hail and strong/severe wind gusts. Cloud cover in
northeastern Kansas has led to uncertainty as to how many storms
will form in this location. Stronger shear exists there (30-35 kts)
with the influence of a weak mid-level wave/MCV. Storms in this
environment (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) will be similarly capable of
isolated large hail and strong/severe wind gusts. While the overall
tornado potential appears to be low, low-level shear will be
maximized within the I-70 corridor southward to where the boundary
resides near Emporia, KS. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
The greatest hail/tornado threat will exist early in the
multicellular convective cycle. Thereafter, storms are likely to
congeal and pose more of an organized threat for strong/severe wind
gusts. A WW is possible later this afternoon as storm initiation
timing/coverage become more clear.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/21/2019

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   38759826 39329806 39529794 39639766 39629711 39449638
            39069515 38649360 37779300 37379353 37259520 37499691
            38079793 38759826 

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